The Phenomenon of Solar Flares and Shortwave Propagation
Solar flares, intense bursts of radiation from the Sun can significantly impact shortwave radio broadcasts on Earth. These flares occur when magnetic energy built up in the solar atmosphere is suddenly released. The energy from a solar flare can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere, a layer of the atmosphere crucial for shortwave propagation. When solar flares happen, they can cause sudden ionospheric disturbances (SID), leading to degraded or completely blocked shortwave radio signals, a phenomenon often referred to as “solar flare and radio disturbances.”
The relationship between solar flares and radio disturbances is complex. Shortwave radio waves travel long distances by reflecting off the ionosphere. During a solar flare, the ionosphere’s density and composition change rapidly, causing shortwave signals to be absorbed rather than reflected. This can lead to shortwave radio blackouts, significantly weakening or losing transmission. Such occurrences are often termed “solar flares and radio blackouts.”
Solar activity, particularly solar flares, can significantly impact shortwave radio propagation, likely contributing to the issues you’re experiencing with broadcast reception. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center provides detailed and current information on space weather conditions that affect radio communications. The NOAA website provides various resources, including forecasts, reports, and models that track and predict solar activity and its impact on different aspects of space weather, including HF radio communications.
Solar flares emit X-rays that can penetrate the Earth’s ionosphere, particularly the D-layer, causing it to become more ionized. This increased ionization can reflect or absorb radio waves at different frequencies, leading to HF (High Frequency) radio communications disruptions. This is particularly problematic for frequencies in the 1 to 30 MHz range, commonly used for shortwave broadcasting. The impact of these solar flares is most intense on the Earth’s dayside, where the sun is directly overhead, and can cause radio blackouts.
Moreover, other space weather phenomena like Radiation Storms caused by solar protons can also disrupt HF radio communication. These protons, guided by Earth’s magnetic field, collide with the upper atmosphere near the poles, enhancing the D-Layer and blocking HF radio communication at high latitudes.
The sunspot cycle, approximately 11 years, significantly influences shortwave radio propagation. Sunspots, dark spots on the Sun’s surface, are indicators of solar magnetic activity, which can lead to solar flares. During periods of high sunspot numbers (SSN), the Sun is more active, increasing the likelihood of solar flares. High SSN usually means better shortwave propagation conditions due to a more reflective ionosphere, except during solar flares. Understanding the “sunspot cycle” is essential for predicting shortwave radio propagation conditions.
SSN, or Sun Spot Number, is a simple count of the number of sunspots and groups of sunspots visible on the Sun’s surface. A higher SSN indicates a more active Sun, which can enhance or disrupt shortwave propagation. Increased solar radiation can boost the ionosphere’s reflectivity during a high SSN period, improving shortwave signal reach. However, the increased solar activity also raises the risk of solar flares, which can cause shortwave radio blackouts. Therefore, the relationship between SSN and shortwave propagation is a delicate balance.
Source: https://www.nexus.org/solar-flares-impact-on-shortwave-radio-broadcasts/
NOAA reports a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued
for 14 Feb, 2025. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
move into a position favorable for enhanced interaction between the
high speed stream and Earth's magnetosphere. These enhancements are
likely to cause elevated geomagnetic responses, with G1 (Minor)
storm levels likely.
From Spaceweather.com: Another solar wind stream is heading for
Earth. It is flowing from a canyon-like hole in the Sun's
atmosphere. First contact with the stream on February 14th could
cause a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm with Arctic auroras for
Valentine's Day.
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4. The
greatest expected 3 hr Kp for February 13 to 15 is 4.67.
No Minor S1 or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No
significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past
24 hours. The largest was at February 13 at 1109 UTC.
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1 to R2, and
Minor to Moderate activity on February 13 to 15.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 13, 2025, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:
"Total solar activity was highest last October in the current
11-year cycle. Since then, it has been declining, but slowly. This
is also true for flare activity. Medium strong solar flares were
produced mainly by the active region of AR3981. Some of these were
accompanied by CMEs, none of which hit the Earth directly, but
passed close enough to affect its atmosphere.
"NOAA predicted on February 8 that there was a possibility of G1
class geomagnetic storms on February 10 and 11. The prediction
turned out to be fairly accurate - although geomagnetic field
activity increased as early as February 9, it was highest on
February 10 and was elevated on February 11. Therefore, ionospheric
shortwave propagation conditions were at their worst on 10 February
and subsequently improved only very slowly in the following days.
"We now observe a large coronal hole, resembling a canyon, on the
Sun, which could be another source of enhanced solar wind. Earth
should be hit by it on Valentine's Day, or February 14. The days
ahead will also be rather unsettled, but the active regions now
rising near the southeastern limb of the solar disk will cause an
uptick in solar activity, nevertheless, causing improved propagation
conditions.
"The good news at the end: at https://www.solarham.com on the bottom
left, after an eleven-week hiatus, we can see a map of the entire
Sun, especially the Sun's far side, under the 'Farside Watch'
banner. So the JSOC glitch has been fixed, and after another click
on http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/timed we can read more under the
heading 'Time-Distance Helioseismic Far-Side Imaging.'"
The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found online
at, https://youtu.be/v5H2QsbiCqo .
Spaceweather.com reports that sunspot 3981 has produced more than 20
M-class solar flares, including two that almost reached category X.
The activity is likely to continue today. The sunspot retains a
delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for frequent
explosions.
The current solar forecast calls for there to be no G1 (Minor) or
greater geomagnetic storms. A potential glancing blow is possible
on February 7 and 8.
Solar radiation - as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours
- was below the S-scale storm level thresholds. (The S-scale is
used to indicate the severity of energetic particles emitted from
the Sun.) The scale ranges from S1 (minor) to S5 (extreme).
There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms
due to the complex cluster of sunspot groups in the Northwest
Quadrant of the Sun.
Radio Blackouts are expected through February 8, with a chance for
R3 (Strong) events due to several magnetically complex sunspot
groups.
There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms
through February 9 as the complex cluster of sunspot regions in the
north continues to rotate closer to the western limb.
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active
levels on February 10 to 19.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, February 6, 2025, from F. K. Janda, OK1HH:
"The current 11-year solar cycle beautifully shows how little we
still know about the universe we live in. Including the Sun, which
is a relatively very stable star (otherwise we wouldn't be here).
Each 'eleven year' cycle is different from all the previous ones,
and all previous attempts to predict the next one have always
failed. Better said - some of them have proven to be valid. But only
some.
"The current developments do not appear to be complex. Coronal holes
11 and 12 were followed by the somewhat surprisingly active regions
of AR3976 - 3971, where eruptive activity rose and fell irregularly.
Occasionally including CMEs, which although they mostly did not hit
the Earth, sometimes partially did.
"The ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions were therefore
mostly above average, but at the same time very variable. There was
no way to accurately predict their course, even if only for the next
24 hours. On the other hand, there was no major disturbance that
would have made them significantly worse. There is only one thing to
say about the future development: it will be relatively easy to
predict at first sight. But only at first sight, the reality will
probably be more different than usual."
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals .
For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .
An archive of past propagation bulletins is located at,
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation .
Check out this QST article about Solar Indices:
The predicted Planetary A index for the period February 9 to 14 is
5, 10, 15, 15, 20, and 10. The predicted largest Kp index is 2, 3,
3, 4, 5, and 3. Predicted 10.7 cm flux is 200, 200, 195, 195, 195,
and 190.
The sun has been moderately active this past week. The greater than 2 MeV (solar particle event) electron flux at geostationary orbit is expected to remain mostly at normal to moderate levels January 30 - 31. A coronal hole high-speed stream is expected to arrive February 1. Particle injection during this time will likely elevate the 2 MeV electron flux to high levels.
Solar wind speeds have been at nominal levels and are expected to continue into January 30. There remains a slight chance for enhancement due to a weak coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a Type II radio sweep off the west limb around January 28. Confidence in the arrival of this CME is low as modeling suggests arrival late January 31.
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions on January 31, due to possible influence from the CME. The most notable effects will be from the high-speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole that is expected to become fully geoeffective on February 1.
The 10.7 -centimeter radio flux and geomagnetic indices: January 30 – 31, 150; February 1, 145, and 150 on February 2.
EarthSky.org reports a large coronal hole which has been under observation since this past Tuesday is now facing Earth. The fast solar wind it produces is expected to arrive late January 31 to early February 1. This could cause disturbances in Earth’s geomagnetic field from unsettled (Kp=3) to active levels (Kp=4) with a chance for G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) levels. Solar activity is at low levels with only C-class flares but a cluster of regions AR3977, AR3976, and AR3978, are emerging onto the visible solar disk and showing signs of magnetic complexity.
Here’s a shocker for you: we live at the bottom of the sky. Above us there are multiple layers of the atmosphere, pressing down on us at 14.7 pounds per square inch.
Of particular relevance to us as shortwave listeners and hams, there is a special layer of the atmosphere, not shown on the chart above called the ionosphere. The ionosphere starts around 30 miles above us and extends up to about 600 miles and includes parts of the layers above.
The Sun’s upper atmosphere, the corona, is very hot and produces a constant stream of Ultra-Violet and X-rays, some of which reach our atmosphere. When the high energy UV and X-rays strike the atmosphere, electrons are knocked loose from their parent atoms and molecules, creating a layer of electrons.
Now, here’s the cool part: this layer – the ionosphere – is important because radio waves bounce off of it.
The sun, however, is not constant in its action on the ionosphere. The amount of UV and x-ray energy (photon flux) produced by the sun varies at by nearly a factor of ten as the sun goes through an 11 year cycle. The density of the ionosphere changes accordingly, and so does the ability of the ionosphere to bounce radio waves. When the sun is at peak activity, and the ionosphere is “hot,” SWLs and hams are likely to experience excellent long-range propagation. When the sun is quieter, long-range propagation diminishes.
Every 11-year solar cycle is unique, but early indications are that we may on the verge a cycle that favors long-range propagation: https://swling.com/blog/2022/03/termination-event-may-indicate-solar-cycle-strength/
The results can be spectacular. Decades ago, during a particularly hot solar cycle, I once spoke from my station near Albany, NY, to a station in the state of Georgia on a mere 4 watts. On another occasion, I conversed with a ham in Christchurch, New Zealand – a distance of over 9,000 miles – with 100 watts single sideband transmit power. During that same period, I would routinely listen to shortwave stations halfway around the world.
Ain't this solar maximum great?
Solar Cycle 25 is now much, much stronger than anyone anticipated,
and it's slowly growing stronger through at least this weekend.
Today's estimated international sunspot number is 281.
It's increasingly likely that we'll have widespread coast-to-coast and
worldwide 6 meter F2 propagation during about half of the days
between late October and at least early February. Widespread F2
openings are likely to bring 6 meter CW and SSB to life like we haven't
experienced in more than 20 years.
The first sign of enhanced 6 meter F2 will be increasingly frequent TEP
from Europe and North America to South America and the South Atlantic islands. TEP may begin very sporadically by late August and become increasingly frequent later in September and especially during October.
Coast-to-coast F2 propagation and propagation crossing the Atlantic
to Europe and Africa may begin sporadically during September and
October and become frequent and long lasting by early November.
Effective 6 meter antennas can be very small. 3 element Yagis are small, lightweight and very effective. 20 foot antenna height is adequate but sloping terrain or higher antennas perform much better. Heights higher than 50 feet are unnecessary and in many cases perform poorly.
Are you ready for this once in a lifetime experience?
73
Frank
W3LPL
Thanks to ionospheric propagation of radio waves, ham radio operators can rely on HF ionospheric radio signal propagation to communicate with fellow hams located way beyond the horizon.
The ionized layers of the ionosphere make HF radio wave propagation possible much beyond line of sight distances. These layers can be viewed as our "Seven League Boots" which, by leaps and rebounds, give our ham ra
I'll explain, in a moment, how the 'F' layer is the most useful ionized layer for DX.
Best of all, solar sunspot cycles improve HF propagation because they revitalize our ionosphere. The good news is, solar cycle 25 has begun! Ham radio operators, all over the world, are looking forward to its increasing activity.
The simplified drawing above illustrates how radio wave 'C' is refracted, by the ionized layer 'F', back toward the earth's surface, rebounds off the earth's surface a great distance away from its origin, goes upwards again as 'C1' to be refracted again by the 'F' layer and bounce off the earth further on as 'C2' and so on.
The radio signals 'A' and 'B', arriving at the ionized 'F' layer at too
The HF signals will gradually lose energy after each refraction by the 'F' layer and after each rebound off the earth's surface... until it is no longer discernible. But, by that time, it will have traveled thousands of miles and been heard by countless radio amateurs and shortwave listeners!
That's the magic of HF ionospheric radio signal propagation.
Ionization of the upper reaches of earth's atmosphere occurs when ultraviolet radiation from the sun collides with hydrogen and helium molecules that are few and far between up there. These collisions detach electrons from the gaseous molecules.
As a result, positive hydrogen and helium ions are generated and negatively charged free electrons are liberated from their nucleus. These regroup into ionized layers above the earth.
However, ionized layers only form when the sun is "active", which it is for about 9-10 years, every eleven years or so. It's commonly called the 11-year sunspot cycle.
We can see the progression of the last few sunspot cycles in the graph shown earlier. You can obtain more information on the 11-year cycle of sunspots here.
During the day, the ionized layer 'D' mostly hinders ionospheric propagation of radio waves.
It is the ionized layer closest to the earth's surface. It is located between 60 km and 100 km (37-62 miles) above the earth.
In the daytime, it forms under the sun's intense UV radiation and constitutes a barrier preventing amateur radio signals in the 40-meter, 80-meter and 160-meter bands from getting far and from being heard in the intense atmospheric noise.
Meanwhile, signals 10 MHz and above can get through to reach the ionized layers above and make their way beyond the horizon.
The 'D' layer dissipates at sunset.
Signals in the 160-meter to 40-meter bands then become free to reach the 'F' layer and reach DX amateur radio stations like the other higher-frequency signals.
The 'E' layer lies between 90 km and 150 km (56-93 miles) above the earth but its most useful portion is located between 95 km and 120 km (59-75 miles) of altitude.
During daytime hours, in theory, layer 'E' could refract 5-20 MHz signals and help them along their way.
However, in reality, the 'D' layer (below) absorbs much of the energy of signals at these frequencies. Only signals in the 7-14 MHz range - transmitted near vertically - will be able to punch through the 'D' layer with enough remaining energy to reach the 'E' layer and be refracted along to reach as far as 1200 km (750 miles) at times.
That's where NVIS antennas come in handy.
The periods just before dawn and right after dusk are best to make use of the 'E' layer. At night, the 'E' layer disappears almost completely, while still remaining somewhat useful to the propagation of signals in the 160-meter band.
Sometimes, dense ionized clouds will form suddenly in the 'E' layer and disappear just as suddenly, minutes, rarely hours later.
Sporadic 'E' propagation (Es) is useful at frequencies above 28 MHz, in the VHF range, rarely below. We cover their usefulness in extending the reach of VHF signals beyond the horizon on another page of this website.
Both 'E' and 'Es' propagation contribute to 50 MHz activity.
During daytime hours, in summer, this layer will often be useful to the propagation of HF radio signals of the 30-meter and 20-meter bands. Its role in the propagation of HF signals is rather negligible.
The 'F2' layer forms during daytime hours between 200 km and 400 km (125-250 miles) above the earth. It is higher in altitude in the summer than it is in the winter.
It is usually around all year round.
At night, layers 'F1' and 'F2' merge into one 'F' layer, a little lower than the daytime 'F2' was located.
The 'F2' ionized layer is present during the major part of a solar cycle.
However, it will sometimes disappear completely for days on end during a deep solar cycle minimum!
The 'F2' layer will reach its highest density at the peak of a solar sunspot cycle.
It will then refract toward earth radio signals ranging from 7 MHz to 30 MHz and enable them to reach distances as far as 4000 km from their origin, rebound off the earth to rise again to the 'F2' layer... and repeatedly do so… sometimes to travel right around the earth and come back from behind their point of origin!
During the better nine years or so of a solar cycle, QRP operators (5 watts of radiated power or less), using simple dipoles, can make DX contacts as far and as often as the QRO operators (using up to 200 to 300 times more power) using a multi-element directional antenna!
During such wonderful periods, every ham radio operator has an equal chance under the sun to make DX contacts.
The information I have presented to you in this article is a very brief summary of what could be said about HF ionospheric radio signal propagation. I have really only scratched the surface!
Countless scientific publications have covered many aspects of the subject since the discovery of the ionosphere's existence and, later, its role in the propagation of HF radio signals.
Research is ongoing, involving and scientists and ham radio operators alike.
For more on our sun's behaviour, visit the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
by VE2DPE
https://www.hamradiosecrets.com/ionospheric-propagation-of-radio-waves.html
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